The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) has reported that the current El Niño episode, which initiated in June of the previous year, has surpassed peak temperature values. Despite its ongoing decline, the El Niño is expected to continue influencing global weather patterns, affecting rainfall and temperatures for the next three to four months.
El Niño Peaks and Declines:
The WMO’s statement revealed that the prevailing El Niño conditions reached their peak during the November-January period, making it one of the five strongest episodes on record. While the abnormal warming of the equatorial Pacific Ocean has pushed sea surface temperatures over 2 degrees Celsius above the 1991-2020 average, the organization notes a gradual decline in El Niño since then.
World Meteorological Organization-Understanding El Niño’s Cycle:
El Niño, characterized by abnormal warming of the equatorial Pacific Ocean, is a natural phenomenon occurring once every two to seven years. The current episode, projected to last for nine to thirteen months, has followed the typical trajectory of peaking during the winter months and gradually weakening through the subsequent summer.
Global Weather Impact:
El Niño’s influence on global weather is profound, with links to extreme weather events such as droughts, extended heatwaves, and hot temperature conditions. The 2015-2016 El Niño episode, one of the strongest in recent decades, saw a rise in sea surface temperatures by 3 degrees Celsius. The current episode, although weakening, is expected to impact global weather patterns until mid-2024.
Indian Weather Outlook:
Indian weather models align with the WMO’s predictions, foreseeing El Niño conditions persisting until May. The Director-General of the India Meteorological Department (IMD), Mrutyunjay Mohapatra, emphasizes the ongoing El Niño’s influence on temperatures in India during the March to May period.
Warnings of Above-Normal Temperatures:
The WMO warns of above-normal temperatures in the coming months, potentially influencing rainfall patterns globally. Since June of the previous year, monthly temperatures have consistently reached new highs, contributing to 2023 being declared the warmest year on record.
El Niño’s Role in Record Temperatures:
While El Niño has played a role in contributing to record temperatures, the WMO underscores that heat-trapping greenhouse gases remain the primary culprit. Celeste Saulo, Secretary-General of the WMO, emphasizes the unequivocal connection between rising temperatures and the increased presence of greenhouse gases.
Conclusion:
As the world grapples with the consequences of El Niño’s lingering influence, the WMO’s insights highlight the importance of understanding and addressing the broader climate crisis. While the immediate impacts include altered weather patterns, the overarching issue of rising temperatures and greenhouse gas emissions remains central to the ongoing climate challenge. The global community faces a collective responsibility to navigate these challenges and work towards sustainable solutions for a climate-resilient future.
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